Commentary
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war—even as part of a much larger strategic conflict—has already begun to yield significant lessons for statecraft and military operations.
The conflict was far from resolved during April. But regardless of the completion of that military phase, profound and durable changes had been caused to the global architecture.
1. Anything your adversary (a) wants you to do, (b) goads you to do, (c) offers to you as a gift, or (c) says you will do is almost certainly something you do not want to do.
Russian President Vladimir Putin took the bait on all four counts in deciding to attack Ukraine. The U.S. government had, since late 2021, insisted that Russia was about to invade Ukraine at a time when Moscow had no plans to do so (even though it had increasingly used the threat of force to keep Ukraine out of NATO).
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