JPMorgan analysts have slapped a sell, or “underweight,” recommendation on emerging market local currency sovereign debt due to the global fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Emerging market fixed income assets have lost 6–9 percent of their value since Russia invaded its neighbor a month ago, JPMorgan estimates, with nervousness about the war and its impact on global energy and food prices adding to existing pressures. A number of top EM central banks are signalling interest rates will now need to rise faster than previously thought, feeding concerns about economically debilitating bouts of “stagflation”—where high inflation and interest rates hikes sap growth. “A month of war has accelerated existing trends and surfaced vulnerabilities,” JPMorgan’s analysts said in a note published late on Thursday. With the U.S. Federal Reserve and emerging market central banks ramping up interest rates, JPMorgan also said it “made sense to take advantage of the recent pull-back” in …
JPMorgan Cuts EM Local Currency Debt to ‘Underweight’ as Russia-Ukraine Woes Bite
March 26, 2022
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