China will never have a “meaningful lead” over the U.S. and will remain “far less prosperous” and productive per person, even by the mid-century, a Sydney-based think tank has said. In its new analysis paper, “Revising Down the Rise of China,” the Lowy Institute said it believes that China’s economic growth will slow to an average of 2 to 3 percent overall from now until 2050, according to the projections. Report co-author and Lowy lead economist Roland Rajah said China was facing several significant constraints to its economy, including demographic challenges, declining housing and public investment, and slowing productivity. Rajah noted that among 20 recent studies, most suggest that China’s economic growth could average out at around 5 percent a year until 2030 before falling to around 4 percent until 2050. “Expectations regarding the rise of China should be substantially revised down compared to most existing economic studies and especially …
China Will Struggle to Become a Dominant Economy: Think Tank
March 15, 2022
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