Commentary Putin is a smart politician. For much of the lead-up to the Ukraine war, it looked like Putin would use Western divisions to disrupt the West and outplay President Joe Biden. But has the tide turned such that it is now Putin, rather than Biden, who should be worried? In order to understand what has happened, we need to start by unpacking Putin’s concerns that led to war. At the heart of Putin’s thinking is worry over how geographically, Ukraine points like a dagger into the heart of Russia. This means that if Ukraine joins NATO, it becomes very hard to defend Russia. As Putin keeps pointing out, missiles launched from Ukraine would take less than 10 minutes to hit Moscow. For Russia, this is a terrifying scenario with no military solution. Indeed, for Putin, the only solution is to have Ukraine (and NATO) declare Ukraine a neutral state. …