Commentary
Allow me to explain why we have not seen a recession yet, despite the collapse in base money supply. We are witnessing the stealth nationalization of the economy. What does this mean? The entire burden of the monetary collapse and rate hikes is falling on the shoulders of families and small businesses, while large corporations and governments are virtually unaffected. Thus, when an agent like the state, which weighs 40–60 percent of domestic productg (GDP) in most economies, continues to consume wealth and spend, GDP does not show a recession even though consumption and private investment in real terms is declining. Bloated government spending is disguising a private-sector recession and the decline in real disposable income, real wages, and margins of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Furthermore, the accidental and exogenous factor of widespread weaker commodities is boosting the external contribution of gross domestic product….