Commentary
Not too long ago, talk of recession dominated the financial headlines. Much of the flow of economic information still points in that direction.
The dramatic interest rate increases orchestrated by the Federal Reserve (Fed) count as one such consideration, as does sluggish consumer spending and a clear reluctance by businesses to spend on new facilities, equipment, and technologies. Even slack import figures suggest that individuals and companies are spending less briskly than they might.
Talk of recession has nonetheless faded because the jobs market has remained impressively robust, allowing the economic optimists, most especially the White House, to dismiss other signs of weakness in the economy. These optimists ask: how can the economy be approaching recession when unemployment rates remain low and hiring is strong? It has been a compelling argument, but now even the jobs market shows signs of weakness….