Commentary
I’m not going to be one of those prognosticators who finds evidence of my predictions regardless of the facts. True, I said two months ago that the U.S. economy would be in a solid statistical recession by late summer. This is based on existing industrial trends and weakened labor markets at the high end but most especially by the declining money supply as measured by M2, the only indicator left.
Since financial deregulation, and the redefinition of what constitutes money, we’ve never seen anything like this, nothing close to it. The Fed likes to bury news of the money supply even though maintaining and managing is its only job. It does matter, just like the supply of everything else. And right now it is actually sinking….