Commentary
Beijing reported that the country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew in this year’s first quarter by 4.5 percent over the first quarter of 2022. That is a vast improvement over the 2.9 percent growth reported for the fourth quarter of last year. Because Beijing rescinded its draconian zero-COVID policy last January, most forecasters expected an improvement, but this recent figure exceeded the consensus 4.0 percent consensus expectation.
But while the report has engendered some enthusiasm in parts of the media and some international institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), questions about China’s economic health remain.
The growth surge, for example, was remarkably uneven and included some statistical quirks. Generally, it carried doubts about its durability. Even the Chinese regime’s statistics bureau added a warning to the GDP figures. “We must be aware,” the bureau said, “that the situation abroad is still complex and volatile, inadequate domestic demand remains prominent, and the foundation for economic recovery is not solid yet.”…