I recently discussed the recession signals from the National Federation Of Independent Business (NFIB) and the inverted yield curve.
“As in 2019, we see many of the same recession signals from the NFIB survey again combined with a high percentage of yield curve inversions. Notably, out of the ten yield spreads we track, which are the most sensitive to economic outcomes, 90% are inverted.”
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, Refinitiv Chart: RealInvestmentAdvice.com
As noted, many analysts suggest the economy may have a “soft landing.” Or, rather, avoid a recession, primarily due to the continued strength in the monthly employment reports. While those employment reports remain strong, the rapid decline in growth has been a recession signal in and of itself. As I stated earlier, the trend of the data is far more important than the monthly number….