Commentary
China’s population drop will coincide with an economic contraction.
For the first time since 1961, the Chinese population is in decline. This year, India is climbing to the position of the world’s most populous country, relegating China to second place. With a smaller population and a slowing economy, China achieving its global ambition of surpassing the United States is now even more remote.
The birth rate last year was at a record low of 1.18 children per mother, which is well below the “replacement rate” of 2.1 children per mother. Falling birth rates have led to both a diminishing and a rapidly aging population that is inching China closer to a demographic crisis. Last year, it was estimated that the Chinese population shrank by 850,000 people. Twenty percent of China’s population is already over the age of 60, and by 2035, the total number of seniors is expected to be 400 million. This would be nearly one-third of the population….