Commentary
Since the recovery from COVID-19 lockdowns began, American households have provided the economy’s driving force. Homebuying and homebuilding boomed, and retail purchases soared in 2021 and early 2022.
That picture has changed, however, as rising interest rates have rendered home ownership too expensive for many, and inflation has cut deeply into the buying power of people’s incomes. Prospects now hardly point in the direction of growth and prosperity. Instead, they point to a developing recession—if the economy is not already in one.
Homebuying and homebuilding had led for a long time. During the second half of 2020 and 2021, purchases of new homes leaped upward. By the end of 2021, buying was running some 25 percent above pre-pandemic levels. Construction naturally followed, with starts of new housing units rising by the end of 2021, some 24 percent above pre-COVID levels….