American industry will slow down next year, then fall into a recession the year after, according to ITR Economics, an economic forecaster.
“We’re still calling for more of a slowing growth cycle in 2023, but the original soft landing that we were calling around the end of 2023 now looks like it’s turning into a hard landing in 2024,” Patrick Luce, an economist with ITR, told The Epoch Times.
A key indicator that made ITR change the forecast was the inversion of treasury rates.
In July, the 10-year treasury yield sunk below the 2-year one and the inversion has been growing since. Such an inversion signals that investors are wary of the economic situation in the next few years and it historically tends to happen 12 to 18 months before a recession….