Commentary
After two quarters of decline earlier this year, the nation’s real gross domestic product (GDP) ticked up in the summer quarter. Political needs will point to the news in predictable ways, but practically speaking the modest 2.6 percent annualized growth changes nothing in the underlying economic picture.
Things remain weak and on the verge of recession, if the economy is not already in one.
Since there is some debate over the definition of recession, the matter can be put this way: If, as some contend, the two declining quarters earlier this year count as a recession, then the third quarter’s paltry real gain hardly says that the ordeal is over. The statistical picture of the quarter points to future declines. If, as others contend, the two down quarters do not yet count as a proper recession, then the third quarter describes more of the already evident weakness and warns that recession is close….