Commentary
The Federal Reserve’s next crisis is already brewing. Unlike 2008, where subprime mortgages froze counter-party trading in the credit markets as Lehman Brothers failed, in 2022, it might just be the $27 trillion Treasury market.
When historians review 2022, many will remember it as a year when nothing worked. Such is far different than what people thought would be the case.
Throughout the year, surging interest rates, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, soaring energy costs, inflation running at the highest levels in 40 years, and the extraction of liquidity from stocks and bonds whipsawed markets violently. Since 1980, bonds have been the de facto hedge against risk. However, in 2022, bonds have suffered the worst drawdown in more than 100 years, with a 60/40 stock and bond portfolio returning a despairing -34.4 percent….