Commentary After two quarters of decline earlier this year, the nation’s real gross domestic product (GDP) ticked up in the summer quarter. Political needs will point to the news in predictable ways, but practically speaking the modest 2.6 percent annualized growth changes nothing in the underlying economic picture. Things remain weak and on the verge…

The CFO of American Express said that consumer spending trends remain strong, despite acknowledging “mixed signals” in the economy. AmEx reported a 21 percent rise in cardmember spending in the previous quarter, as the goods and services and the travel and entertainment categories witnessed growth. The financial services company posted on Oct. 21 better-than-expected earnings…

Household spending expectations have fallen in the month of August amid elevated inflation rates, signaling potentially bad days ahead for the American economy. “Median household spending growth expectations fell sharply to 6.0 percent from 7.8 percent in August, its steepest one-month decline since the series’ inception in June 2013, and its lowest reading since January…

Commentary Consumer spending drives two-thirds of the U.S. economy. But the resolve of American consumers will be put to the test. The stock market, tugged by fears of high interest rates, has gyrated most of the year. Year-over-year inflation has risen to heights not seen in more than 40 years. The bottom is threatening to…

Economists have pasted many labels on today’s economic landscape: recession, stagflation, or an economy that is transitioning to slower growth. Whatever the professionals and public policymakers call the U.S. economy, the data and consumer surveys show that households are enduring a cost-of-living crisis. Everything is piling up for consumers coast to coast, from soaring food…

Commentary Yes, we have some stagflation. Subsequent to the pre-COVID peak in Q4 2019, real final sales of domestic product have slowed to a crawl, rising by just0.73 percent per annum during the last 2.5 years. We much prefer this measure over real GDP because it removes the abrupt inventory swings from quarter to quarter, which…

The largest warehouse market in the United States is reaching full capacity after several months of slowing retail sales, suggesting that the long-anticipated “bullwhip effect” may be starting to take hold of domestic markets. In the Inland Empire, the largest warehouse distribution market in the United States, warehouse vacancies have reached a low of 0.6…

The Federal Reserve’s most recent Beige Book report has raised concerns about inflation and a slowdown of the economy, including an impending recession. The Beige Book—the shorthand name for the Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District—provides an update on economic conditions in each of the Fed’s 12 districts and is released…

An analysis of Bank of America’s (BoA) aggregated credit and debit card spending growth per household has shown a slowdown in such activity, underlining the negative effect of inflation. “In the 28-day period ending June 30, aggregate Bank of America card spending (credit and debit) per household was up 3.3 percent YoY (year-on-year). This was…

U.S. consumer spending in May was lower than anticipated, while rising prices reduced consumer spending, according to the U.S. Bureau of Statistics’ personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) released on June 30. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The PCE index happens to be lower than the Consumer Price Index (PCI), which…